It's 10 races to go before the Chase for the Sprint Cup begins and now the countdown officially begins with where the season started: Daytona International Speedway.
Before I get into picks, I will inform you, the readers, what to expect in this race because this type of racing is different from other races.
Races such as Daytona are labeled restrictor plate races. Restrictor plates limit top speeds in these stock cars. Instead of going what was in the past 200+ by yourself, cars can reach around 180-185 here. Driving at these speeds usually trigger pack racing, meaning cars racing in groups 3 or 4-wide with around 20 cars deep. Now racing at Daytona has resulted into the style of 2 car tandems, meaning cars drafting together with one car in front while the other is pushing.
Daytona is one of two restrictor plates ( the other being Talladega) that is widely viewed as a wildcard race due to massive big wrecks happening because of close racing. So in retrospect, there really shouldn't be any favorites but like at any race track, there are certain drivers who have the track figured out.
Favorites:
Kurt Busch: He is riding with some momentum after a win in dominating fashion at road course Sonoma. He has 12 top 10's in 21 starts in Daytona which is pretty good considering disaster often strikes here. What's even more impressive is his 7.3 average finish in his last eight Daytona races. He led a lap in six of those races. He won the Shootout and his Qualifying race here early in February. Kurt has never won a points paying race at Daytona and at some point, he is due for one.
Clint Bowyer: I picked him to win this February's Daytona 500 and rightfully so. He had one of the best cars leading 31 of 208 laps and was wrecked with 7 laps to go. He has led in the last three daytona races. He is no stranger to being up front here.
Kevin Harvick: Yes, "Mr Where-Did-He-Come-From." This is actually the track where he was deemed such due to his last lap pass on Mark Martin in the 2007 Daytona 500. He finished 42nd in this year's 500 but, keep in mind, he is the defending race winner of this event (Coke Zero 400). You can bet Harvick will be threat if he clears trouble.
Dark Horses:
Carl Edwards: He's the Sprint Cup Series Point leader and, my pick to win the Coke Zero 400. His average finish at Daytona in past 6 races is a 6.8. He's been right there on the last lap at both Daytona and Talladega but ran out of time. Maybe the third time is the charm for Cousin Carl.
Jeff Gordon: It was tough for me to put him here considering he is my favorite driver but lets be honest, Daytona hasn't been his go-to track as of late. His average finish in the last six daytona races is 19.7. On a positive note he finished 3rd in last year's event. Despite his poor finishes here recently, he still has 6 Daytona wins (T-4th most in Sprint Cup History). Bottom line: He knows how to win here.
Tony Stewart: He hasn't got off to a great start this year and is still searching for a win. At Daytona though, he has won three of the last 5 Coke Zero 400's. He has owned this event and considering it is summer time, you can expect for Smoke to start heating up right about now.
Risk Takers:
Kyle Busch: Kyle Busch won this event in 2008, but has an average finish of 23.4 with 2 DNF's since then. Not sure if he'll be around for the finish.
Jimmie Johnson: Ol' 5-time has been a tad worse. His average finish is 24.8 with 2 DNF's in his last six here. I'd take more of a chance on him considering he won Talladega early this year.
Denny Hamlin: He only has 1 Top 10 finish in 11 career starts here with an average finish of 22.9. Enough said.
Don't count on honorable mentions but in this case, I have to: Dale Earnhardt Jr.
You can't go to a restrictor plate track without mentioning the "Pied Piper". You can't really place him in a category. He can be a favorite due to his past restrictor dominance. He can be a dark horse because he hasn't won here in past seven years here in the sprint cup series. He can be a risk taker considering his past 6 finishes average out at a 17.3 here with 2 DNF's. Unusual JR numbers.
At the end of the day, it's just one man's opinion.
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