Chase For The Cup #7: Martinsville

    

                                       nascar.about.com/Image: GIF

So now that the Chase drivers have survived trials and tribulations of Talladega...well, not all, but enough to still make it a compelling battle for the Sprint Cup as the reign of Five-time Jimmie Johnson is more than likely over. We go from Superspeedway to good ole' fashioned short track racing at Martinsville Speedway!

Last week at Talladega was actually pretty calm, except the fact that seven of the 12 Chase drivers finished 25th or worse: Earnhardt Jr. (25th), Johnson (26th), Gordon (27th), Harvick (32nd), Kyle Busch (33rd), Kurt Busch (36th), Newman (38th). Three of those drivers, (Harvick, Ky. and Ku. Busch), still had a chance coming into Talladega of being the champion. With Kyle Busch and Kurt Busch out by 40 and 52 points respectively, both Busch brothers title hopes are done. Kevin Harvick, on the other hand, is 26 points back and a win this weekend would put him right back in the hunt. 

But as of now, it looks to be a four man race with four remaining. Those being point leader Carl Edwards, Matt Kenseth, Brad Keselowski, and Tony Stewart. And honestly, all of these drivers will probably want a solid day coming Sunday as neither of these drivers track records are impressive. What's ironic is that the heavy hitters at Martinsville aren't even threats for the rest of this Chase. They're just looking for wins. Care to take a gander at who all I'm referring to?

Favorites

Denny Hamiln

Hamiln celebrates by completing the Martinsville sweep.
catchfence.com/JPG

Let's try this again, and take advantage of another opportunity to salvage with what his been clearly a disappointing season. He swept Martinsville last year, bringing his Grandfather clock total to four. Can you come through this time Denny? Can you?

Jeff Gordon and Jimmie Johnson

I had to. Neither one should be left off the favorites list. Just look at there track record. In 37 starts, Jeff Gordon has 7 wins with an average finish of 7.0. Unbelievable consistency! And then Jimmie Johnson; He has 6 wins and an average finish of 5.6 in 19 starts. Outstanding! Between them that's 56 starts with 13 wins and a 6.3 average finish. Can you say total domination? 

Darkhorses

Dale Earnhardt Jr.

While his two teammates I just mentioned above have legendary numbers here, Junior has been pretty solid himself. He doesn't have any wins, although he should have won a few here by now, he's consistent. In fact, if the race was six laps less, he wins Martinsville. I expect him to do very well this weekend. After all, Dale Jr is a very respectable short track racer. He can 'git er done'. 

Kevin Harvick

Credit: autoracingdaily.com/ Image: JPG

So "Mr. Where Did He Come From" did exactly that as he was the one who passed Junior to take home the checkered flag in the spring. After his 32nd place finish at Dega last weekend, Harvick must have a race that he had at Richmond months ago. No more hanging around at the finish. He has to lead laps and win. Point blank.

       

Risktakers

Tony Stewart

Forget the fact that he has two wins at Mville; what have you done for me lately? Just place an average finish of 28th over the last three races. If he wants to still contend for the Cup, he must have a better day than that. At least salvage a top ten. I expect him to finish better, but how much is the question.

Thanks to Mother Nature, Sprint Cup Practice was washed out Friday. Because of this, only one practice is scheduled for tomorrow at 8:30 a.m. EST on Speed, followed by Qualifying at 12 p.m. EST. This is the one race where I think Carl Edwards could slip up enough to let competitors behind him gain. Since he's playing defense, he cannot afford to get over aggressive. Which is ironic, because, well, you know......it's short track racing! Short track racing equals aggressive racing. But he has to channel that in and survive much like he did at Talladega. Unless of course, he is in position to win; but that's just my opinion. 

All race stats acquired from http://racing-reference.info/

Chase For The Cup #6: Talladega

The "Big One" is what makes Talladega the wild card track.
allleftturns.com/JPG

Well, let the overnight anxiety begin for Sunday's afternoon Good Sam Club 500. What is shown in the picture above is exactly where the anxiety comes from. A driver finds themselves keeping their position one lap, and on that very same lap, their day could be done with the snap of a finger. But it is even more so for the Chase drivers that still have a shot of winning the Sprint Cup. The key is to be among the 'survival of the fittest.'

But the scenario is different this year. Most come into Talladega trailing Five-Time Series Champ Jimmie Johnson. The hope is that he would get tangled up in someone else's misfortune, leading to the familiar concept of  'opportunity knocks' for a Chase contender. 

This time around, series point leader Carl Edwards is the one that needs to be playing defense. His lead is only five points on Kevin Harvick and seven points on last week's winner, Matt Kenseth. So in essence, all three drivers need to play defense for the majority of the race and wait to strike in the closing laps like so many have. Of course drivers like Kyle Busch, Tony Stewart, Kurt Busch, Brad.K, and even Five-Time hope that misfortune can strike them - assuming that they're able to dodge trouble themselves.

Favorites

Hendrick Motorsports 

Jimmie Johnson, #48, winning the only Talladega race this year

by photo finish. thefastandthefabulous.com/JPG                      

All of Hendrick Motorsports this year have been bad fast at both restrictor plates: Daytona and Talladega. As you see in the picture to the right of me, the 48, 24, and 88 are there at the checkered flag. The 5 is just behind, but he lost momentum after attempting to hold off a charging Johnson and Earnhardt Jr. The finishing order was 1st, 3rd, 4th, and 8th. Not to mention, in the spring, the Hendrick Cars swept the front two rows in qualifying. They've looked strong again in practice and qualifying. Barring a wreck, they'll all be at the finish.

Clint Bowyer

He's probably the most underrated plate driver today. I remember picking him to win the Daytona 500 this year and he showed why I should've because he led much of that race. But a wreck with four to go cost him a shot. Then at the first Talladega race, he led the most laps and was beat by .002 seconds. Oh and let's not forget, he is the defending race winner of this event. This perhaps is his best opportunity of getting a win before he leaves for Michael Waltrip Racing at season's end.

Darkhorses

Kurt Busch 

Ku. Busch is the best restrictor plate driver to have not won at one in a season. He's got the second best average finish, just under 14th. He's 27 points back from the lead, so a win would be much needed. Then again, he might have to play a defense too. Being involved in a wreck would end his championship hopes.

Kevin Harvick

Harvick celebrates his 2010 Dega win after
passing J-Mac in the tri-oval.
nasfans.com/JPG

Lately he has been accredited as "the best plate driver" in the field. In Harvick's last three trips here, he has a April 2010 victory, a second, and a fifth, in that order. This has to make Harvick 'happy' because he comes in only down by five points. If he can survive, Harvick could very well live up to another nickname of his: "Mr. Where Did He Come From". 

Risk Takers

Honestly, anyone could be a risk taker given the series of events that can take place, but...

2/3 of Joe Gibbs Racing (Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin)

Now while restrictor plate racing, you have to patient and lucky. Neither of which both these talented  drivers possess too much of when it comes to Daytona and Talladega. Busch's aggression often gets him into trouble; He has only two top tens in 13 Career Starts. After his 2008 win, Busch only has one top ten in his last six. Hamlin's misfortune has seemed to more unlucky if anything. He has had quite the motor under the #11 over the years because every time I watch, he's always pushing someone to the front. Unfortunately, after doing what he does, Hamiln is often left out to dry and gets kicked to the back, where the turmoil usually begins. His track record is better than his teammate's, but I don't expect neither to be around for the finish. And for Busch's sake, he needs the opposite to occur. 

This race truly is the wild card of all wild cards. I know myself, as a Gordon fan, won't be paranoid as much because his Championship hopes have been shattered. Although, if he wrecks, i'll still be angry. The point is racing Talladega will feel like the season finale at Homestead. Much pressure will be involved of making it through the full 188. I fully expect to see a shake up in the points. And considering Johnson is 35 back, he still has a shot, especially knowing that luck has been on side here come October.

Anyway, my pick to win is A.J. Allmendinger of the #43 Richard Petty Ford. Surprising choice, yes, but in two of three restrictor plate races, we've had first time winners: Trevor Bayne and David Ragan. Let's add to that list. Analysts every where have been saying he will be the next first timer. I'll pick him because no one else has. 

Chase For The Cup #5: Charlotte

JPG/racintoday.com

We're halfway through the Chase for the Sprint Cup and the next stop is here at Charlotte Motor Speedway in Concord, NC, the home track of NASCAR. The chasers aren't in Kansas anymore, and I'm sure many of them are relieved after the beating Jimmie Johnson laid on them, signifying the #48 never went anywhere. But are things really gonna get better for the 11 other drivers trying to dethrone Five-Time? Well, maybe, but not likely.

Favorites

Jimmie Johnson

Johnson's last win at Charlotte in 2009. JPG/NASCAR.com

Five-Time has definitely demonstrated why he is "The Man" at CMS. In a time span from 2003-2005, Johnson won five of the six races. Including winning four in a row at one point. The race he didn't win, he finished 3rd while leading 104 laps. Get the picture? Another astounding stat is that Johnson has led a lap in 18 of his 20 Charlotte starts. Yeah, I think its a safe bet to say he'll be a threat tonight. 

Kasey Kahne

There's no secret that Charlotte is Kasey Kahne's best track. And seeing how he has ran in practice, not to mention, past success here, Kahne is and will be among the favorites to win tonight's Bank of America 500. In fact, he was the sole driver to end Johnson's dominance during that span by going onto winning three of the next five Charlotte races. Now I realize he hasn't had a top ten in the last three, but make no mistake, something unfortunate would have to keep him from breaking such a trend.

Darkhorses


David Reutimann

     

Reutimann in Victory Lane winning the rain-shortened Coke 600 in 2009.
JPG/bleacherreport.com

Yes, I know he won the Coca-Cola 600 thanks to Mother Nature. But since then, he has ran off three top tens in his last four Charlotte starts. This is his best track. Also, his average finish is better than nine of the 12 Chase drivers in the field. Not bad huh?

Greg Biffle

So apparently rumor has it that the Ford's are looking very strong this weekend and he looks to be the Class of the Fusions. The Biff has an average finish of 18th and no wins at Charlotte. Not good. But his practice times in the five and, especially, ten lap averages are very good. So while the focus will be on fellow teammates, Carl Edwards and Matt Kenseth, Biffle might sneak his way into Victory Lane when the race is all said and done.

RiskTakers


Jeff Gordon

Out of all the Chasers, he seems to be the only one that isn't too thrilled with the way he car is driving, Even teammate Dale Jr seemed to be pleased with his ride after practice last evening. Charlotte has been very hit or miss for Jeff. He has four Charlotte wins, but then he has streaks of less-than-stellar finishes, most notably from 2005-2007. He registered five straight finishes of 24th or worse; all DNF's. If anything is a good sign, it was that he was 8th in practice under the expected race conditions yesterday. Otherwise, I don't have any expectations for tonight. Hopefully, I'm proved wrong.


You know what's ironic? I'm giving Fantasy advice and I, myself, am having a difficult time on who to choose. I mean many of the Chasers seem pleased with their race cars. But I have only $100 to work with. Anyway, this race will come down to #4 (Kahne) and #16 (Biffle), with Kasey Kahne winning the Bank of America 500. Yep, That's right. A chaser will not win tonight. In the meantime, I will have my Chicago-Style-Deep Dish Pizza from Lou Malnati's and enjoy the race, as usual.


All Race Stats retrieved from http://www.racing-reference.info/

Chase For The Cup #4: Kansas

Last time the Cup Drivers were here at Kansas, the race turned out to come down to fuel mileage - as so many other races have come to. And that includes the first two races of the Chase: Chicago and London, both of which were won by Tony Stewart, the best fuel saver in NASCAR. 

But Tony Stewart didn't win this fuel strategy battle in June. It was a surprise driver that out survived ALL. His name was Brad Keselowski, driver of the #2 Miller Lite Dodge.  One would think that was a fluke win, but he has backed it up with following wins at Pocono and Bristol. If he didn't struggle with inconsistency early in the season, he'd only be six points back of point leader Kevin Harvick. His three wins would count  he had of cracked the top ten before Chicagoland.

But that's all behind us now. It's the fourth race of the Chase and drivers from point leader, Kevin Harvick, to ninth place Jeff Gordon, are all within 19 points of each other. It'll be all about protection and gaining, as it is every race. So who should look forward to Sunday's Hollywood Casino 400?

Favorites

Kurt Busch 

He was the driver who dominated the STP 400 in June leading 152 laps. But alas, fuel mileage ruined his chances of victory. He has momentum on his side coming off a victory at Dover last week, while holding off rival Jimmie Johnson. He has a great chance of continuing it this Sunday. Let's see if Kurt will have close to the same setup underneath as he did in June.

Tony Stewart

Stewart led the last 30 laps to take home the flag in 2009.

Smoke has won two Chase races here, most recently in 2009. He's coming off a disappointing, yet, expected finish at Dover last week. You bet he's relieved to be gone from there. Tony has led at least one lap in the six of the last seven Kansas races. That trend should continue. Expect Tony to have a "speedy" recovery from last weekend. 

Darkhorses

Brad Keselowski

Brad K. only led 10 laps en route to an upset win at Kansas.

He won the June race; Why not? He only led 10 laps while doing so. Brad and Co. have shown they're better the second time around visiting a track. Let's see if that holds true again.

Jeff Gordon

This track has been very kind to the 4-time Champ. He has two wins with the best average finish of anyone in the field: 8.1. After the performance at Chicagoland, Jeff needs to continue to chip away at the point lead. He survived Dover enough to do so, despite a disappointing 12th place finish. Kansas is a great track for him to continue to embark on his push for championship No. 5. 

Risktakers

Kyle Busch 

Kansas is one of Kyle's worst tracks - unless his average finish of 22.4 says otherwise. Kyle is entering 8th in points, 15 back. Because points mean more than ever, he's going to have to gut this race out.  The good news is that he led 11 laps and finished 12th this June. He only has one top ten in eight starts. I'd like to think he's due for one, but maybe I'm wrong. 

So like every race, I'm going to obviously tune in. If Kurt Busch runs close to how he ran in the first Kansas race, he has a chance of "pulling a Tony Stewart."  I just hope it doesn't come down to fuel mileage. Those races are fine every once in a blue moon. But I don't like to see the fastest car lose, even if it's somebody other than Jeff Gordon. Although, I don't mind seeing the #48 shut out of victory circle. The irony of that is  I'm picking the #48 to win his second race of the 2011 season. Let's not forget, Jimmie has an average finish of 9.1 with two wins as well. But, of course, that's one man's opinion and I'm sticking with it. 

All race stats are retrieved from http://www.racing-reference.info/

Credit to photos from http://racingwin.com/tag/brad-keselowski/

http://www.skirtsandscuffs.com/2010/10/tv-schedule-oct-1-3.html

http://www.bernardbusservice.com/Bernard%20Coach%20Kansas.htm

Chase For The Cup #3: Dover

Dover International Speedway, better known as: The MONSTER Mile

After another fuel mileage race, which was also won by Tony Stewart, we head onto Dover for the AAA 400.

Better known as The Monster Mile, this is the 3rd Chase Race on the schedule where drivers rejoice coming here while others just want to survive. For example, Jimmie Johnson, who had an uneventful at New Hampshire last week, is looking to get back on track. I'd say it's a safe bet for him to do so considering he has won the last two Chase races here. While Tony Stewart, who finished 25th here in June, just wants to hold onto his point lead.

So who will be the one to tame the Monster and conquer the concrete?

Favorites

Jimmie Johnson

Jimmie claims his sixth Dover trophy after winning last September's race.

Five-Time has to be the odds on favorite to win this weekend. He has six wins at the track, as well as, the last two Chase races. Interesting fact: Johnson has led 1,273 out of 2,400 laps over the last six Dover races. Incredible much? If Jimmie has an off race here, then you know something isn't quite right in the #48 camp.

Carl Edwards

Outside of being known as Cousin Carl, he has another alter ego in "Concrete Carl." While Jimmie has clearly been the best at Dover, Carl has been impressive as well. He actually has the best overall finish of all the drivers here: 7.6. He just won the Nationwide race earlier. A sweep is very likely.

Darkhorses

Kyle Busch 

Kyle celebrates after winning Dover in May 2010.

He's hit or miss here. After winning his first Cup Dover race in 2008, Kyle proceeded with three straight finishes of 23rd or worse. Then he won in May 2010 and backed it up with a 6th and 4th. I forsee that he'll be in top five this time around, but don't be shocked if he has a disappointing day tomorrow.

Martin Truex Jr.

This is the first time Martin Jr. has made it in my Fantasy discussions. His first and only career Sprint Cup win came here in 2007, leading 216 of 400 laps. His car has looked good all weekend long. He starts up front. Maybe he can be the Chase spoiler, if not anyone else.

Risktakers

Jeff Gordon

Before Jimmie came along, it was Gordon who conquered the concrete and tamed the Monster Mile. But times have changed. In the last five Dover races, Jeff has four finishes outside the top ten with no laps led. Clearly, he is scuffling at this track. After what looked to be encouraging practices over the weekend, he backed it up with a disappointing 34th place qualifying effort. This isn't the track to start deep in the field. Hopefully I'm wrong, but it looks like Gordon might be in for a long day.

Honestly, Dover isn't one of my favorite tracks, so it'll be difficult to stay interested. I foresee another Jimmie and Carl battle like it was early in the season, with Carl winning instead of Jimmie. I know both drivers have went awhile without winning, but I feel it's time for Carl to try to seize control of the concrete dominance Jimmie has had. Either way, I will be appalled if neither Carl or Jimmie takes home the trophy this weekend.

Of course, that's just my opinion.

All race stats are always acquired from http://racing-reference.info/ 

NOTE: I do NOT take credit for any of these photos.