Chase For The Cup #6: Talladega

The "Big One" is what makes Talladega the wild card track.
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Well, let the overnight anxiety begin for Sunday's afternoon Good Sam Club 500. What is shown in the picture above is exactly where the anxiety comes from. A driver finds themselves keeping their position one lap, and on that very same lap, their day could be done with the snap of a finger. But it is even more so for the Chase drivers that still have a shot of winning the Sprint Cup. The key is to be among the 'survival of the fittest.'

But the scenario is different this year. Most come into Talladega trailing Five-Time Series Champ Jimmie Johnson. The hope is that he would get tangled up in someone else's misfortune, leading to the familiar concept of  'opportunity knocks' for a Chase contender. 

This time around, series point leader Carl Edwards is the one that needs to be playing defense. His lead is only five points on Kevin Harvick and seven points on last week's winner, Matt Kenseth. So in essence, all three drivers need to play defense for the majority of the race and wait to strike in the closing laps like so many have. Of course drivers like Kyle Busch, Tony Stewart, Kurt Busch, Brad.K, and even Five-Time hope that misfortune can strike them - assuming that they're able to dodge trouble themselves.

Favorites

Hendrick Motorsports 

Jimmie Johnson, #48, winning the only Talladega race this year

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All of Hendrick Motorsports this year have been bad fast at both restrictor plates: Daytona and Talladega. As you see in the picture to the right of me, the 48, 24, and 88 are there at the checkered flag. The 5 is just behind, but he lost momentum after attempting to hold off a charging Johnson and Earnhardt Jr. The finishing order was 1st, 3rd, 4th, and 8th. Not to mention, in the spring, the Hendrick Cars swept the front two rows in qualifying. They've looked strong again in practice and qualifying. Barring a wreck, they'll all be at the finish.

Clint Bowyer

He's probably the most underrated plate driver today. I remember picking him to win the Daytona 500 this year and he showed why I should've because he led much of that race. But a wreck with four to go cost him a shot. Then at the first Talladega race, he led the most laps and was beat by .002 seconds. Oh and let's not forget, he is the defending race winner of this event. This perhaps is his best opportunity of getting a win before he leaves for Michael Waltrip Racing at season's end.

Darkhorses

Kurt Busch 

Ku. Busch is the best restrictor plate driver to have not won at one in a season. He's got the second best average finish, just under 14th. He's 27 points back from the lead, so a win would be much needed. Then again, he might have to play a defense too. Being involved in a wreck would end his championship hopes.

Kevin Harvick

Harvick celebrates his 2010 Dega win after
passing J-Mac in the tri-oval.
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Lately he has been accredited as "the best plate driver" in the field. In Harvick's last three trips here, he has a April 2010 victory, a second, and a fifth, in that order. This has to make Harvick 'happy' because he comes in only down by five points. If he can survive, Harvick could very well live up to another nickname of his: "Mr. Where Did He Come From". 

Risk Takers

Honestly, anyone could be a risk taker given the series of events that can take place, but...

2/3 of Joe Gibbs Racing (Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin)

Now while restrictor plate racing, you have to patient and lucky. Neither of which both these talented  drivers possess too much of when it comes to Daytona and Talladega. Busch's aggression often gets him into trouble; He has only two top tens in 13 Career Starts. After his 2008 win, Busch only has one top ten in his last six. Hamlin's misfortune has seemed to more unlucky if anything. He has had quite the motor under the #11 over the years because every time I watch, he's always pushing someone to the front. Unfortunately, after doing what he does, Hamiln is often left out to dry and gets kicked to the back, where the turmoil usually begins. His track record is better than his teammate's, but I don't expect neither to be around for the finish. And for Busch's sake, he needs the opposite to occur. 

This race truly is the wild card of all wild cards. I know myself, as a Gordon fan, won't be paranoid as much because his Championship hopes have been shattered. Although, if he wrecks, i'll still be angry. The point is racing Talladega will feel like the season finale at Homestead. Much pressure will be involved of making it through the full 188. I fully expect to see a shake up in the points. And considering Johnson is 35 back, he still has a shot, especially knowing that luck has been on side here come October.

Anyway, my pick to win is A.J. Allmendinger of the #43 Richard Petty Ford. Surprising choice, yes, but in two of three restrictor plate races, we've had first time winners: Trevor Bayne and David Ragan. Let's add to that list. Analysts every where have been saying he will be the next first timer. I'll pick him because no one else has.