Friday, August 12, 2011

Countdown To The Chase: Watkins Glen

                    An aerial view of Watkins Glen International


It is the final road course race of the NASCAR Sprint Cup Schedule as 43 teams, (and counting), visit Watkins Glen, New York.

Now considering there isn't a Road Course race in the Chase, there isn't much to prepare for except to WIN! Although Mike Helton, President of NASCAR, thinks otherwise. Click Link below for more details.

Qualifying is HUGE at road courses, but i'm prepared to make my predictions ahead of time. Plus, I'm going to be away all Saturday, so I have no choice.

Favorites

Marcos Ambrose

In his minimal starts at the track, the "Tasmanian Devil" has quite the track record to start off with. In three starts, Marcos has posted a 3rd, 2nd, and 3rd, which means for the rest of the field: Yikes! Marcos may finally be able to breakthrough and notch his first ever cup win. I, for one, give him a great chance. Besides, this year has been full of first time winners. Just ask Trevor Bayne, Regan Smith, David Ragan, and Paul Menard. There's always room for one more.

Juan Pablo Montoya            

JPM celebrating his win here in 2010.
Like Ambrose, He is a road course "specialist." He is the defending race winner of this event while leading 74 of the 90 laps. JPM is 21st in the Sprint Cup Series Standings. If he wins this weekend, he moves into the top 20 with a win. Thus, making Juan eligible for the one of the two wild card spots. Simply put, this is the best shot he'll have attaining a Wild Card Chase spot.       

Tony Stewart

Stewart taking the checkered flag for his 5th win at The Glen.
Stewart is all-time wins leader in the Sprint Cup Series here with five. Not to mention, he has the second most laps led with 225. "Smoke" is clinging on for dear life in the top 10. The problem is, if he falls, Tony has no wins to fall back on this season. This is arguably his best track on the Sprint Cup Schedule. He hasn't looked great in practice but I feel if Stewart isn't able to be a contender for the win, he just might not make the Chase. It's desperation time and nobody knows that more than him.                   

Darkhorses

Carl Edwards

For a driver who isn't known as a road course racer, "Cousin Carl" has been consistently solid with an 8.2 average finish here in six starts. He is the point leader with just one win this season. Maybe Edwards sneaks and gets his first road course win in the Sprint Cup Series.

Denny Hamlin

Another driver who isn't known for his road course talents, but the #11 team was very satisfied with their Toyota friday afternoon. Reports from their stable say the car is "balanced".  Denny couldn't capitalize on his best track, being Pocono, last week. He is 11th in points, outside of the Chase top 10, with one win. If he can sneak up and notch his second win of the season, he assures himself a spot within the Chase.       

Jeff Gordon

Gordon hoisting his last trophy win in 2001.
His results have been unimpressive since his wheel-hop costing him another win in 2007. His last three starts resulted in an average finish of 25.3. Very uncharacteristic of Jeff Gordon when it comes to road course racing. He has four wins here, only trailing Stewart with the most wins. Ironically, Stewart drove to victory in 07 after his forgettable mishap. Gordon, towards the end of practice, became happier with his race car. He even tweeted that his car is a just a "few" adjustments away from being a top 5 car. 

RiskTakers

Dale Earnhardt, Jr.

After a top 10 finish for Junior, he now heads to a track that he hates. With an average finish of 22.9, I'd take his word for it. He had one great run in 2008 when he led 33 of 90 laps and seemingly looked like the car to beat. I highly doubt, he has a similar race like such coming up on Sunday.

Matt Kenseth

Like Junior, he too isn't a fan of road course racing. In fact, he is against the idea of having a road course race in Chase. Heh; I wonder why? His average finish is okay: 15.7. The thing is once a driver has a mindset that he hates a particular track, he's almost always going to have a disappointing result. Both Matt and Junior just want to survive Sunday.



There are many others I wanted to mention like Kevin Harvick, who won here in 2006. Or even Jimmie Johnson, who has steadily gotten better at road course racing. There are also the road course ringers like Boris Said, Andy Lally, and Ron Fellows who will have a shot to steal a win for the boys back home.

In retrospect, there are more drivers who have a shot to win a road course race than say...at an oval or short track.   

Interesting fact though, if qualifying rains out, Tony Stewart has a 60% chance of winning on Sunday. Three of his five wins have come from qualifying being washed out.

As much of a pain as road course racing looks, I enjoy watching them. But as usual, its just one man's opinion.


NOTE: I do NOT take credit for any of these photos.

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